Today, we present Episode 9 of the Crisis Compass program prepared by ORSAM’s North and East Africa Studies Coordination Unit. In today’s broadcast, we will examine the prominent political, military, and diplomatic developments in Libya, Sudan, and Somalia during November, together with the on-the-ground power balances and their regional implications.
On today’s Crisis Compass, we first turn our course toward Libya.
The first notable development in Libya in November was the announcement by the High National Elections Commission that it would be ready to hold presidential and parliamentary elections by mid-April 2026, provided that the necessary financing and security are ensured. This marks, for the first time in a long period, the indication of a clear target in terms of an electoral timetable in Libya. In addition, the agreement reached between the High Council of State and the House of Representatives regarding the mechanism for selecting the leadership of critical institutions such as the High National Elections Commission, the National Anti-Corruption Commission, and the Administrative Control Authority can be read as a form of “minimum institutional consensus” aligned with the Berlin Process and the UN roadmap. Contacts between the United Kingdom and the High National Elections Commission concerning the third round of municipal elections, as well as statements by the European Union supporting the electoral process, also demonstrate that international backing remains active.